Issue 11
2 November 2026
15 checks run · 8 had something to say
Where things stand
Bonds protecting you? No falling with stocks
Cash pays 3.99% 3-month T-bills
Long-term rates 4.91% 10-year
Market nerves Calm fear gauge 19.0
Direction Up 4.6% above 200-day
Lending Easy no credit stress
TQQQ actual vs 3x the index
A 3x fund did not give you 3x
+6% vs +29%
the index did +10%; tripling that would be +29%, a -24 point difference caused by resetting every day
Do this: Leveraged funds multiply DAILY moves, not annual ones. Never hold one as a long-term bet.
T-bills vs S&P dividend yield
Cash pays more than the stock market's dividend
3.99% vs 0.99%
a 3.00 point gap in favour of doing nothing
Last issue: 4.04% vs 0.99%.
Do this: Holding cash is not a decision to apologise for while this gap is open.
ORCL, from its high
Falling 40% needs a 67% gain to break even
-60% → +148%
the loss and the recovery are not the same number, and never are
Last issue: -61% → +156%.
Do this: Judge a position by what it needs to recover, not by how far it has fallen.
VIX vs the S&P's actual 30-day movement
Fear is priced above what the market is doing
19.0 vs 11%
the gauge is 8 points over reality
Last issue: 19.0 vs 10%.
Do this: Option sellers are being paid above the going rate.
gold vs the S&P, one year
Gold lagged the stock market
-4% vs +12%
and it moved with stocks at +0.55 over the last 60 days
Last issue: +4% vs +21%.
Do this: Gold is held to behave differently, not to win. Judge it on the correlation, not the return.
typical gap in the seller's favour, 3 of 5 names
Options are paying more than the stocks are actually moving
+9 points
TSLA charges 58%, stock moves 37% · MU charges 66%, stock moves 54% · AMD charges 74%, stock moves 65% · META charges 51%, stock moves 53% · ORCL charges 55%, stock moves 62%
Last issue: +17 points.
Do this: A good month to sell covered calls on shares you already hold, or cash-secured puts on names you would be happy to own. TSLA has the widest gap: the option charges 58% for movement the stock is delivering at 37%.
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Method. Every number is measured from public market data at publication,
not recalled or estimated. 15 checks run against the market each week;
8 had something worth saying and the 6 above were published. A reading is
held back when it ran recently and its number has not moved — you are not meant to
read the same issue twice.
Measured 2 November 2026 at 06:30. Prices move; verify anything you act on.
Not advice. These are one person's measured notes, not a recommendation.
Nothing here is tailored to your situation, and no one here knows what you own.