Where does smart money stand on NVDA
Updated synthesis of 13F filings for NVIDIA (NVDA) covering the last 6 months (primarily Q3 2025 and Q4 2025, filed late 2025 to mid-Feb 2026). Data draws from aggregators like Fintel, BusinessQuant, WhaleWisdom, and recent reports (as of Dec 31, 2025 positions, filed by Feb 17, 2026 deadline). NVDA has ~7,000–7,400 institutional filers, with passive giants dominating.
Aggregate Institutional Ownership Trends
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Total institutional shares (Q4 2025 / Dec 31, 2025): ~16.11 billion to ~18.23 billion (sources vary; Fintel reports ~18.23B long shares, ~75% of outstanding/float excluding 13D/G).
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Ownership %: 65.6%–75% (slight dip in some metrics from ~66.7% in Q3 to 65.6% in Q4, likely due to share issuance/dilution effects rather than net selling).
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Net change Q4 vs Q3 2025: +~674 million shares (BusinessQuant) or smaller +11 million in some snapshots; overall net buying persists but moderated vs prior quarters.
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Q3 2025 recap (for context): +
578 million shares (+3.2%), pushing ownership higher. -
Filers activity (Q4): ~2,789 institutions increased positions vs ~2,311 decreased (313 flat); slight net buyer tilt but more balanced than explosive prior quarters.
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Over last 6 months: Continued net accumulation overall (hundreds of millions QoQ), driven by passive/index inflows despite some active/hedge fund trimming.
Top Institutional Holders (Q4 2025, approximate)
Passive managers (Vanguard, BlackRock, etc.) remain anchors, adding via AUM growth and NVDA’s massive index weight.
| Rank | Institution | Approx. Shares (millions) | % Outstanding (approx.) | Q4 Change Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanguard Group | ~2,267 | ~9.3% | Steady/passive adds |
| 2 | BlackRock | ~1,900+ | ~8% | Index-driven |
| 3 | State Street | ~900+ | ~4% | Stable/net positive |
| 4 | Fidelity (FMR) | ~900+ | ~4% | Accumulation |
| 5 | Geode Capital | ~500+ | ~2–3% | Passive |
| - | Norges Bank | Significant | - | Notable buyer in prior |
Hedge fund / active moves (Q4 2025, more cautious signals):
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Adders: SCGE Management (+~1M shares), SurgoCap (new, +~623K), some smaller/new positions.
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Trimmers/Sellers: Millennium (-~3M shares), Tiger Global (-698K), Coatue (-667K), Appaloosa/Tepper (-200K). Renaissance cut sharply in some reports.
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Hedge funds show more profit-taking/rotation, but dwarfed by passive buying.
Derived Insights
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Passive dominance provides stability: Vanguard/BlackRock/etc. accumulate mechanically — this creates strong bid support and limits sharp downside from broad selling.
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Net institutional buying continues: Though Q4 net adds slowed vs Q3’s surge, more institutions bought than sold. This reflects sustained conviction in NVDA’s AI/data center leadership, Blackwell rollout, and ecosystem entrenchment despite elevated valuations, competition (e.g., custom chips), and macro worries.
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Active manager caution: High-profile hedge funds trimmed (likely gains realization or diversification), but no mass exodus. Some (e.g., Dalio/Bridgewater adds noted in previews) show selective bullishness.
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Ownership resilient at high levels: ~65–75% institutional (mostly long-term/passive) reduces volatility risk compared to more speculative stocks.
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Context: Positions as of Dec 31, 2025 (pre-2026 pullbacks/volatility). NVDA’s ~$4T+ market cap makes it a core holding; any broad tech rotation affects it, but filings show no pre-earnings derisking wave.
Conclusion in Light of Feb 25, 2026 Earnings
The 13F data over the last 6 months leans supportive to mildly bullish ahead of earnings. Institutions net accumulated shares across Q3 and Q4, with passive flows providing a solid floor — no signs of widespread distribution or loss of faith in NVDA’s AI narrative.
Earnings expectations remain elevated: Consensus ~$65–66B revenue (up ~68–70% YoY), ~$1.50+ EPS, and focus on Blackwell updates, gross margins (~75%), China impact (minimal), and forward guidance (next quarter potentially $70B+ range). A strong beat/guidance could reignite institutional FOMO and extend momentum. A miss (e.g., softer guidance amid capex concerns or competition) might trigger a pullback, but the heavy passive ownership and recent net buying suggest dip-buying support rather than panic selling.
Overall setup: Institutions stay positioned for NVDA’s long-term AI dominance. This favors positive skew post-earnings, with the stock as AI/tech bellwether. Watch post-filing 13G shifts or earnings call commentary for confirmation, but the trend remains one of resilient institutional backing. (Synthesized from public sources/aggregators as of Feb 24, 2026; verify latest EDGAR for any amendments.)
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